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2025-06-21 Saturday

  • 02:33:04

    Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: Multiple indicators show that the economy is close to maximum employment.

  • 02:32:37

    Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: The unemployment rate has remained within a narrow range and at a low level.

  • 02:32:26

    Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: Market sentiment has deteriorated, reflecting concerns about trade policy.

  • 02:32:18

    Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: It remains to be seen how market sentiment will affect spending.

  • 02:32:13

    Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: Inflation has declined but is still above target.

  • 02:31:43

    Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: Unusual fluctuations in net exports make GDP measurement more complicated.

  • 02:31:04

    Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: The current policy stance puts us in a favorable position.

  • 02:30:46

    Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: Inflation has remained slightly above target.

  • 02:30:37

    Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: The economy is in a solid state.

  • 02:22:12

    June 19, FOMC policy statement saw no changes to managed interest rates, as expected. Perhaps more interesting, however, was their Summary of Economic Projections, which continues to expect two rate cuts this year, but not by much, with nine participants (down from eight in the previous release) believing that no or one rate cut would be appropriate. They also expect inflation and unemployment to rise, while economic growth will slow. There were few changes to the statement, but it was interesting that they noted that "uncertainty about the economic outlook has decreased, but remains high" - this uncertainty is a controversial proposition, with continued uncertainty about trade policy, concerns about how the budget bill will affect government finances, and geopolitical turmoil. The vote was unanimous. The Summary of Economic Projections, while still believing that two rate cuts this year would be appropriate, now expects only one rate cut in 2026 (down from two) and only one rate cut in 2027 (no change, but sets the rate for that year at 3.4%, rather than 3.1% previously). The spread of points remains wide over the next few years and beyond.

  • 02:18:04

    U.S. Embassy in Israel: Embassy staff have begun to evacuate Israel.

  • 02:17:27

    On June 19, U.S. interest rate futures prices reflected a 71% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, compared with 60% before the announcement. The probability of a rate cut in October rose to 85%, compared with 80% before the announcement.

  • 02:03:04

    Federal Reserve FOMC statement: Inflation remains slightly high.

  • 02:02:28

    Federal Reserve dot plot: 7 of 19 officials believe there will be no rate cut in 2025, 2 expect one rate cut, 8 expect two rate cuts, and 2 expect three rate cuts.

  • 02:02:15

    Federal Reserve dot plot: It is expected that the interest rate will be cut by 25 basis points in 2026 and 2027.

  • 02:02:01

    Fed officials still expect a 50 basis point rate cut in 2025, but only a 25 basis point cut in 2026, compared with a previous forecast of a 50 basis point cut.

  • 02:01:30

    Fed dot plot: Seven officials expect no rate cut in 2025.

  • 02:01:14

    Federal Reserve dot plot: The median expectation for the long-term federal funds rate is 3.0%.

  • 02:01:12

    Federal Reserve Dot Plot: The median forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of 2025 is 3.9% (3.9% in March).

  • 02:00:43

    The Federal Reserve lowered its GDP forecast for 2025 to 1.4%, while raising its inflation forecast to 3%.

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