Biden Announces Financial Budget; Oil Prices Rising to the Highest Level

2021-05-28 12:15:53

Summary

President Biden will present a $6 trillion economic budget on Friday, which means the federal government will spend $6 trillion in fiscal year 2022 and increase total spending to $8.2 trillion by 2031, bringing federal spending to its highest level since World War II and implying a deficit of more than $1.3 trillion over the next 10 years.

Commodity prices generally rebounded on the news of the plan, while 10-year Treasury yields and the dollar index rose slightly, breaking the pattern of hesitation in the market for nearly two weeks. Among them, LME copper recovered strongly to an intraday high of $10271; WTI crude oil rose to $67.27 for three consecutive days, only one step away from a two-and-a-half-year high of $68.0. while the dollar strengthened, gold fell below $1900, hitting as low as $1888.


Clearly, the market believes that Biden's move is like continuing to "release water" substantially, at a time when the Fed has repeatedly stressed that the rise in inflation is only "temporary." Biden's move seems to reignite market expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten monetary policy ahead of time because of a sharp rise in inflation. 'inflation is coming, and the question is how high it will be and how fast it will come, 'said JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon. But in any case, the boost of fiscal stimulus is conducive to the global economic recovery, which means that it is positive for WTI crude oil, especially if relations between the world's first and second largest economies have eased. Therefore, from a broad background, the current long-term upward trend driving oil prices has not changed.


Us crude oil prices closed at their highest level in more than two years on Thursday as strong US economic data boosted the market and Wall Street maintained optimism that commodity prices would rise. July WTI crude oil futures rose 64 cents to close at $66.85 a barrel, the highest since October 2018, while July Brent crude oil futures rose 59 cents to close at $69.46 a barrel, the highest since May 17.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said commodities will continue to face a gradual supply crunch in the second half of the year, with little evidence that there will be a strong enough supply response to derail the bull market. These factors have helped offset supply concerns as Iran and global powers try to revive the nuclear deal in Vienna. Bart Melek, head of commodities strategy, said: "optimism about demand masks concerns about Iran; the US is the largest oil consumer and this peak driving season is likely to be quite good as more parts of the US restart." Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said: "this has made us take a riskier attitude towards the market and we are starting to focus on supply and demand again."


The prospect of Iranian supply re-entering the market has put pressure on oil prices. Since April, Iran and world powers have been negotiating Washington's lifting of sanctions on Iran in exchange for Iran's compliance with restrictions on its nuclear program, including the lifting of sanctions on its energy sector. This will be a big issue for the next meeting of the OPEC+ alliance of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries ((OPEC)) and its allies on June 1st. OPEC sources said that the alliance is likely to continue to gradually loosen oil supply restrictions at next Tuesday's meeting, and oil-producing countries will strike a balance between a recovery in demand and a possible increase in Iranian supply.


In the short term, the focus of the oil market is on the OPEC+ meeting in early June, where it is widely believed that OPEC+ is expected to reiterate its production plan at the meeting next week in order to restore more oil production halted during the outbreak. OPEC+ will approve the plan to increase production by 840000 b / d in July, thus completing the plan to resume production of about 2 million b / d from May to July. However, the Iranian nuclear agreement process has brought uncertainty to these expectations.



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