Monthly Market Review November 2023

US
① The Fed kept the fed funds rate in a target range of 5.25%-5.50%, starting that it was not considering rate reductions at this time.
② Headline inflation rose in September at a slower pace, with the rise in shelter price and gasoline price accounting for most of the increase.
③ Personal income and personal spending rose in September, especially spending on services and spending on goods. Correspondingly, retail sales rose in September, reflecting growth in almost all categories.

Europe
① The ECB left the key interest rates unchanged in October, nothing that interest rates are at levels that will make a substantial contribution to the inflation goal if they are maintained for a sufficiently long duration.
② Euro area inflation rose in October at a slower pace whereas manufacturing and services PMI fell, resulting in a decline of composite index which marked the fifth straight month of contraction in business activity.
③ GDP contracted by -0.1% in Q3 2023, which was below expectations.

China
① China official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI fell in October, resulting in a decline of composite PMI.
② Exports dropped in October, reflecting persistent weak demand from abroad. However, imports rose due to the government efforts to stimulate domestic demand and raw material stockpiling.
③ GDP grew by 4.9% y-y in Q3 2023, slower than the 6.3% growth in Q2 2023.

Japan
① The BOJ kept its short-term policy rate and the target level of 10-year JGB yield unchanged but was allowing more flexibility in its yield curve control policy.
② Inflation rose at a slower pace in September but was still above the BOJ target.
③ Industrial production increased in September while exports also grew on the back of an increase in exports of automobiles. On the other hand, imports shrank for the sixth straight month.
④ Retail sales declined in September while household spending rose at a slower pace due to falling real wages. 

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