Daily Outlook: Us manufacturing expanded at a steady pace in June but price indicators soared

2021-07-02 17:43:08

01

The OPEC+ deal to increase production is pending because of last-minute opposition from the United Arab Emirates:

After a key member blocked the deal at the last minute, the OPEC+ alliance was locked in fierce infighting, forcing the group to postpone the meeting and raising questions about whether a deal that could ease the surge in oil prices could be reached. A delegate pointed out that the confrontation between the United Arab Emirates and the rest of the organization may eventually mean that OPEC+ will not increase production. If no agreement is reached, the organization will return to existing provisions that require output to remain unchanged until April 2022. This will squeeze an already tight market, which could lead to a surge in inflation. The dramatic turn of events left the market at a loss at a time when oil prices were above $75 a barrel.

02

Global tax reform has taken a key step, with 130 countries and regions supporting the setting of a minimum corporate tax rate:

The Biden administration and global allies won a major victory on Thursday, taking a crucial step towards a major overhaul of the global tax system. One hundred and thirty countries have agreed to set a minimum corporate tax rate and agree on how to share the power to tax multinationals such as Facebook and Google. After years of twists and turns, the agreement reached by the OECD (OECD) lays the groundwork for the signing of a principled agreement by finance ministers of the Group of 20 leading economies at a meeting in Venice next week. This could mean that new tax rules are expected to be implemented as early as 2023 to reduce tax evasion by letting multinationals pay an effective tax rate of "no less than 15 per cent".

03

Initial jobless claims in the United States fell more than expected last week:

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States fell sharply last week, hitting a new low during the COVID-19 epidemic, indicating that the number of layoffs is falling as the economy reopens and the demand for labor rises. The number of first-time jobless claims in regular states fell by 51000 to 364000 in the week ended June 26, according to data released by the Labor Department on Thursday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a median of 388000 applicants. The number of continued claims increased to 3.47 million in the week ended June 19.

04

Us manufacturing expanded at a steady pace in June but price indicators soared:

Us manufacturing continued to expand at a steady but slightly slower pace in June, while a measure of the price paid for raw materials jumped to its highest level in nearly 42 years. Its manufacturing index fell to 60.6 from 61.2 in May, according to data released by the Institute for supply Management on Thursday. A reading above 50 indicates that the industry is in a state of expansion. The median forecast for June data by economists surveyed by Bloomberg was 60.9. Although a measure of new orders fell, output indicators rebounded and manufacturers made some progress in dealing with the backlog of orders. At the same time, a measure of manufacturing employment has shrunk, a further sign that manufacturers are still having trouble finding skilled workers at a time of strong demand.

05

IMF said the Fed could need to raise interest rates by the end of 2022 at the earliest:

The International Monetary Fund ((IMF)) said the Fed may need to start raising interest rates at the end of 2022 or early 2023 as rising government spending keeps inflation above the Fed's long-term average target. The Fed is likely to start scaling back its asset purchases in the first half of 2022, IMF staff said in a statement on Thursday.

06

The European Central Bank Lagarde said bank dividend restrictions could be lifted by the end of September:

According to Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, European banks are likely to see restrictions on dividends and share buybacks lifted by the end of September, providing the clearest signal yet that the industry will be able to improve returns for long-suffering shareholders. Lagarde, in her capacity as head of the European systemic risk Committee, told European lawmakers on Thursday that the committee might allow its restrictions to expire if conditions in the economic and financial sectors did not deteriorate substantially.

07

Bailey said the Bank of England should not overreact to a temporary rise in inflation:

Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, said policymakers should not overreact to a "temporary" surge in inflation, refuting speculation that he would tighten monetary policy soon. In a speech in London on Thursday, Bailey said the recent rise in inflation was partly due to base effects and shortages with the easing of the blockade, which "should not last". He also predicts that as the economy reopens more comprehensively, there should be a shift from consumption of goods to services.

08

Republican senators urged Biden to end Trump's trade war with China and Europe:

Several Republican lawmakers have called on US President Joe Biden to end the "self-harm" caused by former President Donald Trump's trade war against China and Europe. In a letter to the White House, seven Republican senators called on Biden to lift tariffs and other trade barriers imposed by Trump during his term of office. These policies affect a wide range of industries, including agriculture, automobile production and manufacturing.



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