Oil prices rose for the fifth week in a row, and a strong economic recovery from the northern hemisphere is likely to continue to boost energy demand; WTI oil prices broke through key resistance levels, leading to a rebound in fuel demand, while global crude oil supply remained stable as OPEC+ continued to cut production. 

OPEC+ will resume supply of 2.1 million b / d to the market in May-July as part of phasing out last year's record production cuts. The next meeting of the OPEC+ will be held on July 1st and may further increase oil production in August.

Howie Lee, an economist at OCBC Bank in Singapore, said the recovery in demand took everyone by surprise and OPEC needed to respond. Given that prices are so high and there is some room for loosening supply restrictions, we may see an increase of 250000 b / d from August. ANZ and ANZ expect OPEC+ to increase production by about 500000 b / d in August, which could support higher prices. Analysts at Anzhi Bank said in a report that any amount below that could be enough for bulls to push the market higher in the short term. Oil analysts say a sharp correction in oil prices is unlikely unless OPEC+ supply increases by 1 million b / d or more. 

Art Woo, senior economist and economic director of BMO, said higher oil prices would make it easier for OPEC+ to reach an agreement at its ministerial meeting on July 1, when OPEC+ will decide on its production reduction strategy from August. Because of OPEC+ 's ability to limit supply and rebalance the global oil market, the bank believes that raising the average price of US oil to $65 a barrel in 2021 and $70 a barrel in 2022 ($60 in the previous two years) does not mean prices will not rise, especially given the excessive upward trend in commodities, but this will prove to be temporary.

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