Daily Outlook: The US economy is at risk of overheating and the market is creating a bubble

2021-06-22 10:54:48

01

Powell reiterated that inflation will fall back to the Fed's long-term goal: 

Jerome Powell, chairman of the federal reserve, said that once the supply imbalance was resolved, the rising inflation rate should fall back to the central bank's 2% target. "inflation has risen significantly in recent months," Powell said in a written statement preparing to testify to the House novel coronavirus crisis Special Committee on Tuesday, due to rising oil prices and a "rebound" in spending as the US economy reopened. "as these temporary supply effects abate, inflation is expected to fall towards our long-term goal," he said. Powell's remarks largely repeat his opening remarks at the press conference after the June 16 conference. 

02

The Fed's Williams says inflation should be close to 2% next year: 

John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said: "I expect inflation to fall from about 3 per cent this year to nearly 2 per cent next year and 2023 as prices reverse and the short-term imbalances caused by the reopening of the economy end."

03

The US economy is at risk of overheating and the market is creating a bubble: 

Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers and Bridgewater founder Redalio (Ray Dalio) said at the Qatar Economic Forum that the United States faces a period of economic overheating and inflation that could threaten the economic recovery, although the Federal Reserve has hinted that it will intervene before it happens. 

04

The Fed's demand for overnight reverse buybacks hit another all-time high: 

The use of the Fed's overnight reverse repo facility surged to an all-time high on Monday. The 68 participants used a total of $765.1 billion, up from $747.1 billion on Friday and above the record of $755.8 billion set on June 17 to pay a 0.05 per cent interest rate on overnight reverse repos, helping to temporarily reduce reserve balances in the banking system.

05

In the face of regulatory pressure, Wall Street banks remain cautious about the layout of cryptocurrencies: 

Banks looking to expand in cryptocurrencies are being sharply reminded by regulators of the risks involved. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision said on June 10 that it plans to impose the strictest capital requirements on such assets for any bank that wants to hold cryptocurrency products such as bitcoin. The standard-setters say that if banks do expand their product range in this volatile market, the risks to financial stability will be enormous. 

06

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde believes that the spillover effect of US inflation on the euro zone is limited: 

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, said the acceleration in US inflation, which led to a change in the Fed's view of price risks, would have only a limited impact on the eurozone. Spillover effects may "occur through the direct channel of imports from the United States, or through some indirect trade or expected mechanisms," Ms Lagarde told lawmakers at the European Conference on Monday. Overall, she said, the impact on inflation in the euro zone is "expected to be mild".

07

The United States, Europe, Britain and Canada jointly sanctioned Belarus to crack down on important sectors of the economy and Lukashenko's henchmen: 

The United States, Britain and the European Union on Monday announced sanctions against dozens of Belarusian individuals and organizations, joining forces to punish the country's forced landing of a Ryanair flight last month and the government's continued crackdown on President Lukashenko's political opponents. In a joint statement, the Quartet, including Canada, expressed deep concern about the measures taken by Lukashenko since he vainly claimed to have won the general election last year, including continued attacks on human rights, fundamental freedoms and international law. 

08

EU Ambassador to the United States: the EU hopes that the United States will eliminate metal import tariffs by the end of the year: 

Stavros Lambrinidis, the EU ambassador to the United States, said the EU was trying to get the United States to remove national security tariffs on metal imports by the end of the year. "We will sit down for the next five months until the end of the year-we will try to solve the fundamental problem of overcapacity, and our absolute goal is to eliminate these tariffs," Lambrinidis said in a virtual discussion hosted by the Wilson Center on Monday. "We have to get rid of these tariffs-they hurt a lot of industries."


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