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NFP Data Hits the US Dollar Index, Focusing on Multiple Economic Data This Week

Summary

The price of gold rose and fell last Friday. Spot gold closed at US$1,757.13 per ounce, almost reversing the intraday gains. It rose by 1.46% during the intraday session, refreshing its high since September 22 to US$1,781.41 per ounce. Although the weak US employment data complicates the Fed's decision to reduce monetary stimulus before the end of the year, the rise in US Treasury yields has narrowed the rise in gold prices.

After the release of non-agricultural data, the U.S. dollar fell, and U.S. bond yields initially fell and then turned higher. The benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yield rose to 1.6%. Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Ava Trade, said in a report that non-agricultural employment data clearly shows that because the US labor market is "still very fragile", there is no need to reduce stimulus at this time. The data hit the dollar index hard and pushed up the price of gold.


However, some factors in the non-agricultural employment report show that it is not particularly pessimistic. Marcus Garvey, head of metal strategy at Macquarie Group, said that the employment report is still sufficient for the Fed to continue to reduce the size, especially the poor data is largely due to the decline in government employment, rather than private employment. Now investors’ focus will turn to Fed officials’ speeches later this month to assess their response to the employment report.


This week (the week of October 11th to October 17th) will usher in a number of heavy economic data including the China-US inflation report. Specifically, including China’s CPI, PPI and import and export data, the US CPI, Heavy economic data such as PPI and retail sales. As for the central bank, the Federal Reserve will announce the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting. Several Fed votes and ECB officials will speak. As for the crude oil market, OPEC, EIA and IEA will all publish monthly reports on the crude oil market. .


① On Monday, China's September social financing data may be released. In 2021, the FOMC voting committee and Chicago Fed Chairman Evans will give an introductory speech at an awards ceremony.

② On Tuesday (October 12) the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom in September and the vacancies in the United States in August, the Bank of Korea announced the interest rate resolution, the US House of Representatives voted on the temporary increase in the debt ceiling bill, the European Central Bank chief economist Lien delivered a speech, 2021 In FOMC vote committee, Atlanta Fed President Bostic gave a speech on inflation.

③Wednesday (October 13) China September Trade Account, September CPI of the United States, Fed Meeting Minutes, EIA and OPEC monthly reports.

④ Thursday (October 14) China's September CPI and PPI, US September PPI data, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Mann delivered a speech, 2021 FOMC vote committee, Atlanta Fed President Bostic on economic inclusive growth Delivered a speech. In 2021, the FOMC voting committee and Richmond Fed President Barr gave a speech.

⑤ On Friday (October 15) the September terrorist data in the United States, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Chairman Huck made a speech on the economic outlook.


Risk Warning: The above content is for reference only, and does not represent JRFX’s position. JRFX does not assume any form of loss caused by any trading carried out in accordance with this article. Please consult your financial planner for your investment portfolios and manage your own risk.


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