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Prospects of NFP of 25 Investment Banks


On Wednesday (August 4), the U.S. dollar held its gains. It had quickly rebounded from an earlier decline as the market paid attention to Fed Vice Chairman Clarida’s suggestion that the Fed may cut its contribution to improvement at a faster rate than generally expected. Economic support. Spot gold almost gave up its intraday gains and closed at 1811.78 US dollars in late trading. The dollar rebounded sharply and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields left low after Clarida's remarks, reducing the attractiveness of non-interest-bearing gold. Oil prices fell for the third day in a row. Both U.S. oil and Bursa oil fell by more than 3%, refreshing their lows in the past two weeks to US$67.86/barrel and US$70.11/barrel respectively.

Friday (August 6) will announce the changes in the U.S. non farm payroll and unemployment rate after the July seasonal adjustment. On Wednesday (August 4), 25 large investment banks including Morgan Stanley issued their opinions The forecast of this data is as follows.

Forecasts of 25 large investment banks show that major investment banks have a large gap in the expected growth rate of non farm payroll in July. Specifically, the US non farm payroll growth rate after the July seasonal adjustment is expected to be between 675,000 and 1.15 million, and the unemployment rate is expected to be introduced. Between 5.6% and 5.8%, the average annual rate of hourly wage increase is expected to be between 3.7% and 4.0%.

Fed Chairman Powell said at a press conference after the July interest rate meeting that the "substantial further progress" required to trigger the reduction of debt purchases has not yet been reached, and that the timing of the reduction of debt purchases will continue to be evaluated in the future. If non-agricultural new jobs in July exceed 850,000 in June, the employment recovery rate will reach the level when former Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke issued a signal to reduce debt purchases in May 2013. The Federal Reserve is expected to release a reduction in debt purchases in August. Signal. If the employment data is significantly lower than in June, the signal to reduce debt purchases may be postponed to September.

Earlier, the Federal Reserve Brad said that due to supply constraints, the number of non farm payroll is still lower than the level before the epidemic, and it is expected that there will be strong employment growth in the future. The impact of the global epidemic has profoundly changed the operating mode of the overall economy. In the process, older workers who are not familiar with electronics and Internet technologies are becoming the biggest victims; in the United States, "X "Generations" of workers are facing the worst unemployment crisis. Many previous monthly non farm payroll reports also show that under the impact of the epidemic, many older Americans were forced to retire early, which also contributed to the overall employment participation rate in the United States. One of the culprits of the low ranking.

Precious metals analyst Gary Wagne said that according to Dow Jones, the non farm payroll report is currently expected to show that in July, the United States added 788,000 non farm payroll, lower than the previous value of 850,000, and the unemployment rate will drop from 5.9% to 5.7%, with an average hourly wage. Will rise by 3.9% year-on-year.

British foreign exchange broker ActivTrades believes that the July non-agricultural report may clarify the outlook for the dollar. If the July U.S. non-farm payrolls report proves that some Fed officials’ views are correct (they believe it is too early to remove stimulus measures due to the weak labor market), the report may put the dollar at a disadvantage. The hesitation of some important figures in the Federal Reserve caught the U.S. dollar optimistic. They believe that it is too early to start reducing the scale of asset purchases. Friday’s employment data may clearly show whether these concerns are reasonable and whether the U.S. dollar will strengthen. The road is clearer.

Chris Weston, research director of Pepperstone, a broker, wrote in a client report that the US non farm payroll report will be an event risk that affects everything. If the increase in jobs reaches 1 million, then the expected reduction in the asset purchase plan announced in September will increase. , But if there are only 703,000 new jobs or less, it will depress the dollar.

Risk Warning: The above content is for reference only, and does not represent JRFX’s position. JRFX does not assume any form of loss caused by any trading carried out in accordance with this article. Please consult your financial planner for your investment portfolios and manage your own risk.

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