2021-03-19 10:34:26
眾所周知,在國際金融市場上黃金與美元作為兩種重要的避險品種,其二者存在較強的相關性。多數市場人士認為美元跌的時候黃金在漲,而黃金跌的時候美元則往往處於上升途中,黃金與美元在全年的大部分時間內呈負相關。
但事實是否果真如此?
首先,由於美元與黃金同是各大國家中央銀行的重要儲備資產,若美元指數表現堅挺就在一定程度上削弱了黃金作為儲備資產和保值功能的地位。其次,美國目前的經濟總量仍穩穩佔據“三強標準”地位,即世界其他最強三個國家經濟總量實力總和。對外貿易總額世界第一,世界經濟深受其影響,而黃金價格由於其天生的避險作用與世界經濟好壞成反比例關係。第三,世界黃金市場一般都以美元標價,這樣美元貶值勢必導致金價上漲。
但是,通過近二十年的統計資料表明,美元與黃金的負相關性並不是在任何時間都適用。如下圖,黃金在2011年之前始終處於震盪上行的態勢,特別是2008年世界金融危機階段。國際現貨黃金價格飛速飆漲至每盎司100美元左右,而與此相對應,美元指數則自2002年開始進入下降通道。金融危機階段,美元指數下降至近二十年地位70附近。
金融危機過後,黃金替代美元成為國際金融市場的強勢貨幣,美元則進入了長達10年的疲弱週期,直到今年7月份對於美聯儲提前加息的議論升溫而推動美元走強,金價自1300美元/盎司年內支撐高臺跳水。
在上圖中,我們看到美元與黃金的負相關關係並不是任何時間都有效。自1995年至今,美元與黃金價格的相關性始終處於較強的波動之中。在大多數情況下,其二者呈現負0.5的相關性。而在1995,2005及2010年二者都出現了極其明確的正相關關係。
2021-04-21 11:12:47
01
What is Forex?
Foreign exchange trading (or Forex for short) refers to the exchange (also called buying and selling) of currencies in different countries. The foreign exchange market is one of the fastest growing markets in the world in recent years. Forex trading is open 24 hours a day, 5 days a week, trading uninterruptedly.
In fact, Forex trading is very similar to stock trading-buy low and sell high. But the advantage of foreign exchange trading is that you do not need to screen thousands of industries and companies. Forex trading is much simpler than choosing good stocks.
If you have just entered the Forex market, you can trading based on your views on the economy and future development of specified countries you want to invest in. Buying and selling currencies is as simple as buying and selling ordinary commodities.
At the same time, the trading hours of the foreign exchange market are not limited. The foreign exchange market is open 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. For traders all over the world, flexible transactions can be carried out at any trading time, not limited to computers, web pages, and mobile phones.
02
What is Currency Pairs?
When we trade Forex, we are actually buying one currency and selling another currency at the same time. This is why Forex is traded at the exchange rate of a "currency pair".
As the name implies, major currencies refer to several currencies that are frequently traded in the world, including Euro (EUR), U.S. Dollar (USD), Japanese Yen (JPY), British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD), and Swiss Franc (CHF), etc. . The figure below lists several major currencies and their issuing countries and symbols.
EURUSD
Fiber
GBPUSD
Cable
USDJPY
Ninja
USDCHF
Swissie
USDCAD
Loonie
AUDUSD
Aussie
NZDUSD
Kiwi
03
What is Spread?
Each currency pair listed has an exchange rate, which consists of a "sell" price and a "buy" price. The sell price is the price at which the broker sells a given currency pair, and the buy price is the amount the broker is willing to pay for buying this currency pair. The difference between the selling price and the buying price is called the spread. The smaller the spread, the more fees you will save per transaction.
In JRFX, we have dozens of tradable currency pairs, and the spread is as low as 0.0 pips.
04 What’s the relationship between Forex market and interest rate?
Have you noticed that experienced Forex investors often pay attention to the interest rates?
*High interest rates will help a country attract foreign investment, thereby increasing the demand for money, which in turn will cause the currency to increase.
Interest rates are like a barometer of a country's economy. As a country's economy strengthens, consumers will have more disposable income, and prices will rise accordingly, causing inflation. The central bank of each country will take measures to raise interest rates to ease inflationary pressure before it gets out of control. The result of high interest rates is that economic growth slows down until the central bank starts to lower interest rates to encourage economic growth and expansion.
The trend of interest rates is generally speculated based on the central bank’s statements and meeting minutes. This is why investors tend to analyze word by word to determine what possible interest rate moves the central bank will make at the next meeting. Therefore, the direction of interest rates is often more important than the interest rate decision itself.
05
What’s Other Factors affect Forex?
Apart from interest rates, there are many other factors affecting the medium and long-term trend of Forex market, including gross domestic product (GDP), US non-farm payrolls (NFP), consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), durable goods orders, claims for unemployment benefits, industrial production index, trade balance, unemployment rate, retail sales, etc. Differences between published data and expectations will have different impacts on currency pairs.
06
Types of Forex Trading Market
The foreign exchange market (FX Markets) is usually classified according to the time of the transaction, and there are spot market (Spot), forward market (Forward), swaps (Swaps) and futures markets(Futures).
Spot foreign exchange transaction (Spot), also as known as spot transactions, refers to the fact that after the transaction of foreign exchange transactions, both parties to the transaction conduct delivery on the same day or within two business days. Currency prices are determined by supply and demand, macroeconomics, and national policies.
On the other hand, contracts traded in forward and futures market represent a demand for a certain currency type, with a specific price and future settlement date for each unit.
Risk Warning: The above content is for reference only, and does not represent JRFX’s position. JRFX does not assume any form of loss caused by any trading carried out in accordance with this article. Please consult your financial planner for your investment portfolios and manage your own risk.
JRFX is an online CFD broker providing more than 50 products for Forex, metals and commodities. Open a trading account within a minute. Deposit 100USD and download our MT4 trading platform now!
2021-05-07 16:32:20
01
What is Bitcoin-halving?
The so-called "halving" is a unique issuing mechanism of bitcoin. According to the Bitcoin white paper, this mechanism was designed when Bitcoin was born. Halving Bitcoin means that the reward for producing a new block is halved about every four years. This means that every time a Bitcoin miner validates a transaction, Bitcoin's revenue is reduced by 50%.
02
Why halving bitcoin?
After successfully mining a bitcoin, the bitcoin miner will receive a block reward-essentially a bitcoin payment. However, the process of halving Bitcoin follows the theory of cryptocurrency economics. Because the quantity of Bitcoin is limited and its supply decreases over time, it is possible to keep the price of Bitcoin "stable" and deflationary by reducing the total supply, which is why Bitcoin is halved.
03
Historical bitcoin-halving date
Halving Bitcoin is a quadrennial event. On November 28, 2012, Bitcoin halved for the first time, rising 77.65 times from $13.49 to $1047.5; the second halving occurred on July 10, 2016, when Bitcoin soared from $620 to $18711, a more than 30-fold increase. Bitcoin was halved for the third time on May 12, 2020, and the Bitcoin Block Award was reduced from 12.5 Bitcoins to 6.25 Bitcoins as Block 630,000 was dug up. The third official halving of Bitcoin did not lead to the bull market expected by the market, closing the day at $8821.43, up 2.9 per cent.
As for the volatility before halving, several industry insiders said in an interview that the main reason was that the expectation of halving Bitcoin was realized ahead of time. "the impact of the third halving of Bitcoin and the wider audience, the market is actually more concentrated and unstable." However, a halving of Bitcoin is bound to lead to a rise in the price of the currency, and the third halving may lead to a bull market in a year's time. As you can see, in each halving event, the number of bitcoins dug up and block rewards have been halved. By 2032, more than 99% of bitcoins will be mined, and it is estimated that 100% of bitcoins will not be mined until 2140.
The next half of Bitcoin is expected to happen on May 9, 2024. Halving the bitcoin this time will reduce the mining bonus from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins.
04
Advantages and disadvantages of Bitcoin-halving
Halving in nominal value could be seen as a negative event, especially for bitcoin miners. However, the halving event may have a positive impact on investors and traders. As the price of Bitcoin rises after each halving, Bitcoin owners will benefit from a rise in the value of their assets. Halving demand for Bitcoin is often a good thing because of reduced supply, which is often seen as a major factor driving up the price of Bitcoin and other knockoffs in the future. But traders must also recognize the possible negative impact of halving bitcoin. Some analysts predict that halving could cause losses to other counterfeit coins. As mining costs suddenly double and miners may sell their reward bitcoins, Bitcoin may face a huge risk of collapse.
Halving bitcoin is often accompanied by price fluctuations, which can be positive or negative. Price volatility usually increases before and after the halving event. Traders can take advantage of fluctuations to make a profit. However, sharp price fluctuations may also make the pricing model elusive, thus affecting the implementation of trading strategies.
05
How to use Bitcoin-halving to make a profit
Previous halving events have led to a rise in the price of bitcoin. However, the environment for each halving is different, and demand for bitcoin is likely to fluctuate sharply, especially during the current pandemic. This has proved to be an economic test for even the most "stable" assets. For the encryption market as a whole, Bitcoin is often a bellwether of the market trend. When Bitcoin rises, most major cryptocurrencies usually keep rising for quite a long time, so counterfeit coins are positively correlated with the Bitcoin bull market. The term "a rising tide lifts all boats" is the most appropriate way to describe the impact on coins, which have been in a bull market after each halving in the past. Although the global economy is in turmoil and almost all assets are suffering losses, Bitcoin owners are likely to reap the benefits of halving again.
Risk Warning: The above content is for reference only, and does not represent JRFX’s position. JRFX does not assume any form of loss caused by any trading carried out in accordance with this article. Please consult your financial planner for your investment portfolios and manage your own risk.
JRFX is an online CFD broker providing more than 50 products for Forex, metals and commodities. Open a trading account within a minute. Deposit 100USD and download our MT4 trading platform now! We have unprecedented promotion program!
2021-04-21 16:01:36
01
What are commodities?
A commodity is an economic good, usually a resource, that has full or substantial fungibility. Most of commodities are raw materials, basic resources, agricultural, or mining products, such as sugar, grains, coffee bean, tea and iron ore.
Note: According to Bloomberg News on 18 September, 2015, U.S. regulators formally define cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, as commodities, which are the same as crude oil or wheat.
02
Why do we trade commodities?
Markets for trading commodities can be very efficient. These markets will respond to changes in supply and demand to find an equilibrium price and quantity quickly. Moreover, investors can gain passive exposure to the commodity markets through a commodity price index.
Because inflation hurts ordinary investment products, trading commodities can protect investors from inflation. This is because when the prices of goods or services rise, the value of the commodities needed will also rise. Accordingly, if your portfolio includes certain commodities, you may be able to reduce losses owing to inflation.
03 What are main commodities in financial market?
In the financial market, commodities are homogeneous, tradable, and widely used as industrial basic raw materials, such as crude oil, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, iron ore and coal.
Commodities are divided into three categories: energy commodities, basic raw materials and agricultural products.
Commodities can be designed as futures and options as financial instruments to trade. Since commodities are mostly industrial basic raw materials, which are in the most upstream, the changes in futures and spot prices that reflect their supply and demand relationships will directly affect the entire economy. For example, rising copper prices will increase industries such as electronics and construction. Investors should pay close attention to the supply and demand and price changes of commodities.
04
Where can I trade commodities?
JRFX is a leading provider of contract for Difference (CFDs), delivering trading facilities on shares, forex, commodities, and metals alongside to direct access world electronic trading market by innovative trading technology.
You can explore our new JRFXOne mobile app and choose from commodities markets around the world.
Risk Warning: The above content is for reference only, and does not represent JRFX’s position. JRFX does not assume any form of loss caused by any trading carried out in accordance with this article. Please consult your financial planner for your investment portfolios and manage your own risk.
JRFX is an online CFD broker providing more than 50 products for Forex, metals and commodities. Open a trading account within a minute. Deposit 100USD and download our MT4 trading platform now! We have unprecedented promotion program!