In Asian session on Friday (May 6), spot gold weakened slightly and is currently trading around US$1,868; on Thursday, gold prices rose and fell, as the market believed that the Fed's tightening of monetary policy was stronger than that of other major central banks, and the US dollar index recorded The biggest one-day gain in nearly two years, again setting a new high in nearly two decades, offset the relatively less hawkish support for gold prices from the Fed's relatively less hawkish stance on interest rate hikes.
Clarida, the former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, believes that the US interest rate must be increased to at least 3.5%, and the Bank of England raised the benchmark interest rate to 1%, which makes the bulls worry about the opportunity cost of holding gold, although the US stock market fell and the geopolitical situation still provided gold prices. Support, but the short-term gold price is still biased towards the bears.
The market's attention began to turn to the non-agricultural employment report in the evening. Judging from the ISM manufacturing employment index, ISM non-manufacturing employment index, ADP, initial unemployment benefits and other data, the non-agricultural employment in the evening may have a limited increase, and may still give Gold prices provide the opportunity to bottom out. The market expects nonfarm payrolls to increase by 391,000 in April, after an increase of 431,000 in March. Better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls are seen as a positive development for the dollar and vice versa. However, if the non-agricultural performance is stronger than market expectations, you need to beware of the possibility that the price of gold will drop to the 1850 mark.
On May 5, market analyst Eren Sengezer pointed out after studying 21 non-agricultural reports that 15 minutes after the data was released, if the non-agricultural employment data was lower than the market consensus, the price of gold rose on average by $3.97. Gold prices, on the other hand, lost an average of $1.68 on the unexpected positive. Investors' immediate reaction could have a bigger impact on the disappointing data.
In addition, Fed officials will also make speeches one after another, which may give further hints to the Fed's future monetary policy, and investors also need to pay attention.
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