The USD remains the ultimate safe haven, and this could determine its reaction to the US election. A Biden victory could boost risk sentiment and weigh on the USD, whereas a surprise Trump victory could fuel protectionist

This has been a tumultuous year. One that has seen the fastest gross domestic product contraction and paciest bull-to-bear equity descent, then ascent, since World War Two.

Fears, weigh on risk sentiment and boost the USD. Further out, we expect that downside risks to growth, a persistently dovish Fed (eg, depressed US real rates and yields), lingering concerns about rapid deterioration of the US twin deficits could encourage further diversification out of the USD. The currency also continues to look very overvalued according to our long-term valuation measures.